Wine Investment tips.

With last year so convincingly dominated by Lafite and its siblings, we suspect that the greatest returns this year will – shock, horror – be found elsewhere. That’s not to say we’re feeling bearish about Lafite’s future fortunes – we expect the overall progress to be positive in 2011 – but we do expect things to get a touch choppy as investors take their (hefty!) profits, causing price wobbles here and there and testing the mettle of Lafite lovers.

So, let’s get 2011 under way with a bang. Here are our Hot Tips for the year ahead:

Under £1,000:

Chateau Beychevelle

Last year we tipped Duhart Milon in this league, and what a good call that turned out to be; every bottled vintage from the last decade appreciated by at least 150% in 2010. The reason? A new love affair from Chinese buyers.

This year, Chateau Beychevelle – another 4th Growth – appears to have taken the baton. Speculation is rife as to why, but Jeanne Cho-Lee, Asia Editor for Decanter Magazine, is probably on the right lines when she suggests that the bold, distinctive label is an influential factor: the boat closely resembling Chinese dragon boats.

Add to cellar? With merchants internationally reporting increased interest, demand could go through the roof. A very strong candidate for 2011.
Leave on the shelf? Struggles critically. You have to go right back to 1982 to find a Parker score above 90/100.
Also consider: Pontet Canet, Pichon Baron

£1,000 – £2,000

Chateau Duhart-Milon

We tipped this last year at just a few hundred pounds. Today it’s around £1,100 – £1,300, but remains our firm favourite. Following in the footsteps of Carruades as a budget Lafite substitute, but better quality, more pedigree and every bit as much Rothschild kudos gives Duhart the edge we think. Slower starter so retains price advantage: sits at around 30% of Carruades prices in like vintages.

Add to cellar? Don’t delay
Leave on the shelf? Don’t dream of it
Also consider: Angelus, Yquem (really sits in next bracket, but shop around for pre LMVH vintages and bargains abound. Imports to China, previously banned due to high sulphates, legalised late last year). All the second wines of the First Growths

£2,000 – £5,000

Chateau Haut Brion

A First Growth for two grand? Have we taken leave of our senses? Actually, no; poor old Haut Brion has (so far) not found the love in China, and in this league prices are, frankly, ludicrously cheap. Shop carefully and your bill could still start with a two. Bottled vintages of the last decade sit at just 55% of the aggregate values of the other First Growths – and just 36% of Lafite!

So what’s going on? This is, after all, one of just five elite estates honoured with First Growth status, and unquestionably one of the finest producers in the world. The answer may lie in the fact that Haut Brion sports a different shaped bottle to the other Firsts, making it not so immediately recognisable as a claret. Mindful that these wines often given as gifts to impress in the East, it could be this simple factor that has deterred would-be buyers.

Assuming that’s the only thing hampering progress, then HB has a very bright future indeed in 2011. The mood in China is changing, tastes are broadening, and – crucially – burgundy (where the bottles are more similarly shaped) is finding increasing favour. HB has a lot of catching up to do, and prices are set for an upward correction.

Add to cellar? Definitely. Could be a slow start, but once prices start to rally expect great things
Leave on the shelf? Relies in a continuing attitude shift in the East. Vital signs look good, but no telling when the full effect will be felt
Also consider: Evangile, Pavie

£5,000 – £10,000

Chateau Latour

Yeah yeah – we know, boring, safe and unimaginative. Nonetheless, First Growths should still form the backbone of any sensible portfolio, and we believe that 2011 is the year that a credible challenger to Lafite (the price differential to the other First Growths now defying logic) will rise from the other four. Our money’s on fabulous Latour.

Add to cellar? Regardless of the above, this is one of the world’s greatest estates and a blue-chip investment, so buy with confidence
Leave on the shelf? This is far from a one horse race, and the pretender to the throne could well turn out to be one of the other First Growths. Each makes a compelling case.
Also consider: Any of the other First Growths. Take your pick

£10,000 – £50,000

Chateau Petrus

For many, the absolute epitome of fine Bordeaux, overshadowing even Lafite and the other First Growths. For decades has sat in a price band of its own, but a combination of factors – namely stagnating prices over recent years and Lafite’s stellar ascension – have narrowed the gap to the point that Petrus now looks, ahem, cheap.

Add to cellar? Requires deep pockets, but we expect it to do well this year.
Leave on the shelf? Price point dictates narrow market – could be hard to sell in tough times.
Also consider: Ausone, Le Pin

£50,000+

Domaine de la Romanee Conti

The undisputed king of Burgundy, in a league of its own with no real challengers. As Burgundy finds increasing favour in China, DRC is now the gift du jour if you really want to impress somebody.

HUGELY expensive (bottled vintages from the Noughties average £67,818 per case – £100k+ for the 05), but that’s the point, really.

Add to cellar? You’ll need to dig deep begind the sofas for change.
Leave on the shelf? Very narrow exit market – you’ll need a specialist to help you sell it
Also consider: Not much really. A Ferrari?

What’s happening

Wine Investment tips.