Parker 2005 re-grade – any quick wins?
Early next week we will hear the results of the eagerly anticipated re-grading of vintage 2005 by his Royal Bobness, Robert Parker. Many of you have been asking whether it’s worth a punt on those Chateaux that we expect to get an upgrade.
And a very reasonable question it is too, given that we have already had a sneak preview as to his likely opinions, and the consequent effect on prices: last December he re-tasted Mouton Rothschild 2005, and elevated its score from 96 to 99+. In the 6 months since the price rocketed from £3,600 to £4,500; some 25%.
So are other wines likely to do the same after the announcement early next week? The concurrent view amongst experts is that Mr Parker was a bit stingy across the board on the 05s, and you can expect many to receive a boost. We’re confident that Lafite, Palmer, Margaux, Petrus, Le Pin, Mission Haut Brion, Lafleur & Leoville Poyferre will all benefit from increased grades.
But should you buy them? Actually, no (with one possible exception, read on.)
Two reasons: firstly, at the time of the upgrade, the 05 was trading at a significant discount to higher graded Moutons. The chart below show the relative value at the time of the upgrade and now. Clearly, the 05 had some ground to make up, so the price boost was about reaching parity with rather than overtaking its peers.
Conversely, if we take a snapshot of, say, Lafite we can see that the 05 already has near price parity with other top vintages in spite of its lower grade; 96+ (other than the 2000, which benefits from the hard to justify ‘millennium’ premium).
The second reason is that the price of the hot favourites has already risen in anticipation of the upgrade. Palmer, for example, has grown from £1,800 to £2,200 in the last 6-months. In other words, most of the potential benefit is already built into the price.
So are there any worth punting on? Well, for our money, your best bet is Pontet Canet. It’s come up 15% or so in the last 6 months, but still trades at a 35% discount to super-vintages like 09 and 10. It’s currently graded at 96+. Does that tantalising little plus sign give us a clue as to the direction Mr Parker will take?
Our view: well worth a punt – could we see a quick 35% here? – and very little downside (we do not predict a fall from grace).
25 cases available at £1,050 per case, excluding fees. Subject to availability and offered on a first come, first served basis.